Hanna Wulkow: Prediction of Covid-19 Spreading and Optimal Coordination of Counter-Measures

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought much of public life to a standstill. Even though vaccinations are now starting to become available, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are still at the forefront of the fight against the virus. But while strong anti-Covid measures stop the spread of the infection, they come with severe socio-economic costs. How can we find the right balance between these two objectives?
We built a traditional compartmental (ODE-) model that can replicate results from a very detailed agent-based model which is much more computationally expensive. The ODE model is used to solve the multi-objective optimization problem outlined above, resulting in a Pareto front which gives us the optimal combination of anti-Covid measures for both objectives.

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