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Closing the Loop: Motion Prediction Models beyond Open-Loop Benchmarks

Daniel Göhring, Mohamed-Khalil Bouzidi, Christian Schlauch, Nicole Scheuerer, Yue Yao, Nadja Klein, Jörg Reichardt – 2025

Fueled by motion prediction competitions and benchmarks, recent years have seen the emergence of increasingly large learning based prediction models, many with millions of parameters, focused on improving open-loop prediction accuracy by mere centimeters. However, these benchmarks fail to assess whether such improvements translate to better performance when integrated into an autonomous driving stack. In this work, we systematically evaluate the interplay between state-of-the-art motion predictors and motion planners. Our results show that higher open-loop accuracy does not always correlate with better closed-loop driving behavior and that other factors, such as temporal consistency of predictions and planner compatibility, also play a critical role. Furthermore, we investigate downsized variants of these models, and, surprisingly, find that in some cases models with up to 86% fewer parameters yield comparable or even superior closed-loop driving performance. Our code is available at this https URL.

Titel
Closing the Loop: Motion Prediction Models beyond Open-Loop Benchmarks
Verfasser
Daniel Göhring, Mohamed-Khalil Bouzidi, Christian Schlauch, Nicole Scheuerer, Yue Yao, Nadja Klein, Jörg Reichardt
Verlag
Cornell University
Schlagwörter
Robotics (cs.RO); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Systems and Control (eess.SY)
Datum
2025-05-08
Kennung
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2505.05638
Quelle/n
Sprache
eng
Größe oder Länge
8 pages
Rechte
Open Access